Prediction Market Data API

Definition

An API that provides real-time odds, prices, volume, and historical data from prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus, enabling AI agents to incorporate crowd-sourced probability estimates into decisions.

In Depth

Prediction market data APIs give AI agents access to crowd-sourced probability estimates for future events, from elections and policy changes to crypto prices and technology adoption timelines. These markets aggregate distributed information into prices that represent the crowd's probability assessment, often outperforming expert forecasts and polls. Major prediction market platforms with API access include: Polymarket (crypto-settled, broad event coverage, public API), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, US-focused events, authenticated API), Metaculus (community forecasting, open data), and PredictIt (political markets, limited API). Data fields typically available: market question/title, current probability/price (0-100%), trading volume (24h and total), price history (time series), resolution criteria, and closing date. AI agents use prediction market data for: research grounding (citing calibrated probabilities instead of model guesses), decision support (incorporating event probabilities into business planning), arbitrage detection (finding price discrepancies across platforms), and trend analysis (tracking probability changes over time as new information arrives). For example, a marketing agent planning 2026 campaign budgets might query prediction market odds on regulatory changes affecting ad targeting, incorporating a 65% probability of new privacy regulation into budget scenarios. Integration patterns include: real-time price feeds via WebSocket for time-sensitive applications, hourly polling for research agents, and daily snapshots for planning tools. When combined with search APIs like Scavio, agents can correlate prediction market movements with news events by searching for relevant coverage when probabilities shift significantly. This combination of quantified uncertainty (markets) and qualitative context (search) produces more nuanced agent reasoning than either source alone.

Example Usage

Platforms

Prediction Market Data API is relevant across the following platforms, all accessible through Scavio's unified API:

• Google

Related Terms